2018 prospect of the PV market explosion & technology upgrades double positive
2017-12-12

With the formal entry into force of the Paris Agreement, the development of new energy and clean energy has become the trend of the times. The rapid adoption of photovoltaic as a universal clean energy source will put the world's installed capacity at 100 GW in 2017. Research firm GTM data pointed out that in 2017 the world's eight countries photovoltaic installed capacity of more than 1 GW, and by the end of 2018 will be increased to 13. According to the "13th Five-Year Plan" for China's national energy development, China's non-fossil energy consumption will account for more than 15% of total primary energy consumption by 2020. The "Strategy of Energy Production and Consumption Revolution (2016-2030)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Bureau of Energy proposed that by 2030, non-fossil energy power generation will account for 50% of the total power generation and 70% -80% of the total power by 2050 %, Compared with the current level there is still much room for improvement. In 2017, PV installed capacity in China reached a historical high of nearly 50 GW, but the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in the first three quarters was only 1.8%. According to the new calculation of CITIC, China's PV installed capacity by 2030 may reach 2,600 GW, which has great potential for development. China's PV manufacturers currently occupy an overwhelming advantage in terms of technology and cost. Under the expectation of a clear development situation, major leading enterprises have all announced increases in production or expansion of production.



Structural overcapacity to turn round the positive development of the industry


2017 is a year of substantial expansion of the entire PV industry chain. According to public data, in the polysilicon material, Tongwei in Leshan, Baotou new 100,000 tons of capacity, GCL-Poly in Xinjiang 4-6 million tons expansion plans, the new hope in Xinjiang 100,000 tons expansion plans; In the silicon, the battery side, to Longji, Central, Tongwei, Rongde, Beijing Express, Oriental Risheng represented single polycrystalline enterprises have also announced large-scale expansion. The view is that 2018 will be a serious surplus of the whole industry chain year. In our opinion, modest overcapacity is conducive to market competition, and the ultimate survival is based on the dual advantages of quality and cost.


1, the actual output data is far below the planned capacity


The expansion of the major leading companies declared expansion does not necessarily will eventually landing, its publicity is more in order to win the favor of the capital market, rational PV companies will be based on the market to grasp the pace, in particular, monocrystalline silicon and the battery side, By high-purity polysilicon raw material production capacity constraints, its production far announced the huge capacity. According to the expansion data released by major mainstream manufacturers, it is estimated that the domestic production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers will be 35-40 GW by the end of 2017. According to the new calculation by CITIC, the output is only about 25 GW.


2, to maintain adequate supply growth should beware of structural excess capacity


Photovoltaic industry exists in a fully competitive market mechanism, survival of the fittest with the entire industry development cycle. According to the analysis of the history of polysilicon production, the price of polysilicon was more than 500 U.S. dollars / kilogram before and after 2007, and then hundreds of enterprises nationwide announced the launch of polysilicon at that time. Fifty families were indeed launched at that time. However, after the winter, the only There are seven, which more than seven million tons of polysilicon enterprises to master the modified Siemens closed loop technology, energy saving, cost reduction in the quality of the development and growth, as the global polysilicon supply market. Photovoltaic industry has great potential for development. With the rapid growth of demand in recent years, the growth of supply must be higher than the growth of demand. Appropriate excess will allow low-end production to exit the market and full competition will profit the progress of the industry.


3, high purity, high efficiency, cost-effective products scarce, 2018 quality products are still in short supply


High quality, differentiation, low cost is the weight of any product to maintain market competitiveness. In the polysilicon end to the leading GCL-Poly, for example, according to the announcement of Xuzhou base electronic grade polysilicon has been mass production, polysilicon in Xinjiang will fully meet the CCz Czochralski monocrystalline and N-type monocrystalline material needs. We predict that after the expansion of polysilicon production capacity is partially released in the second half of 2018, the silicon materials meeting CCz's Czochralski (CZ) Czochralski (Czochralski) single crystal and the silicon material that can only meet the needs of the ingot will spread to over RMB10,000 / tonne, High-quality silicon will still be in short supply. In addition, GCL will fully transform the traditional mortar cutting on the silicon side, and the production capacity will be doubled. The completion of the diamond wire cutting and modification will be completed by the end of the year. The diamond technology supporting diamond wire will greatly improve the efficiency of crystalline silicon products, reduce the cost, and release the capacity quickly Current and 2018 first half full orders. In contrast with the single route of Longji and Central, GCL-Poly insists on the dual-line development. While polycrystalline led the entire industry chain to reduce costs and increase efficiency, it also chose to cross the Central shares known for its high-tech and high-quality products in the development of single-crystal products Equity participation, to achieve single polycrystalline technology simultaneously.


4, backward production capacity gradually introduced the market, Matthew effect will appear


Polysilicon, the integrated power consumption of more than 80-100 degrees / kg capacity will be out of the market; in the long crystal, 600 kilograms of old ingot furnace, can not meet the demand for continuous Czochralski crystal furnace will be eliminated; in Slice end, behind the sand cutting production capacity will be completely out of the market in mid-2018, the ability to transform or too late to transform single polycrystalline enterprises is difficult to survive, even if the diamond wire cutting transformation is completed, but the quality is unstable, the technology is not mature Of the silicon enterprises will also face great market pressure; in the battery module side, the low degree of automation of the production line will not be able to provide efficient and low-cost photovoltaic products.



The rapid decline in the cost of the entire industry chain outperformed the market


The PV market in China has shown a gradual trend since 2013, with the newly increased installed capacity each year exceeding the expectations of the beginning of the year. According to statistics from China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in the first half of 2016, domestic installed capacity of 18 GW is expected, while the actual installed capacity will increase by 34.5 GW. In the first half of 2017, domestic PV installations are expected to add 20-30 GW, while in January-September The new installed capacity has reached 42 GW.


1, the rapid decline in the cost of the entire photovoltaic industry chain is the main reason for the market installed frequently exceeded expectations


According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the market price of photovoltaic modules dropped from 36 yuan / watt to now 3 yuan / watt, down by 92% in the eight years from 2007 to 2017. The price of grid-connected photovoltaic system dropped from 60 yuan / 7-8 yuan / watt, down 87%; inverter prices from 4 yuan / watt dropped to 0.3 yuan / watt, down 92%. PV module prices in the past two years still maintained a decline of more than 30%. According to the new energy data of the state, the prices of components dropped from 4 yuan / watt in early 2016 to below 3 yuan / watt at present, and the polycrystalline components dropped to 2.8 yuan / watt in early 2017. By 2020, another 30% reduction in the price of photovoltaic power generation and thus electricity parity is possible. PV industry chain prices fell far faster than expected, significantly reducing the subsidy pressure, stimulating the world's major markets, especially developing countries, the use of photovoltaic power generation, which is the main reason for exceeding the expected PV installed capacity each year.


2, the technology dividend release, the future cost of the industry chain will continue to decline


In the end of the silicon material, polysilicon production capacity expansion rate is less than the downstream rate of expansion, the demand for higher prices in the market situation is not sustainable. According to the polysilicon companies open information, in 2018 the new capacity will be gradually released in the west, the new energy, new energy, GCL-Poly these leading enterprises have accumulated more than 100,000 tons of high-quality capacity expansion plan. For example, the base of GCL-Poly transferred to Xinjiang has started construction and will be completed and put into operation in the second half of next year with the lowest cost in the world. The remaining capacity of Xuzhou base after the production capacity transfer is fully covered by the low electricity price of the self-provided power plant, and the cost is lower than that of all the non-western low-electricity areas. In addition, the production of granular silicon with low-power silane fluidized bed is about to mass-production. By the end of 2018 there has been a sharp decline. In addition, in the long crystal, polycrystalline ingot in the case of the purchase of new equipment, G7 ingot furnace to change the G8 will increase 30% of production capacity, and through the thermal field to optimize the crystal structure to further enhance the efficiency; Czochralski , CCz continuous Czochralski crystal technology and ingot single crystal technology will be further development and application. At the slicing end, the diamond wire cut in the polycrystalline area to reduce the overall cost of 30%, diamond wire diameter, the price there is a further downward trend, diamond wire cutting + black silicon + PERC polycrystalline efficiency increased to 20.5%. At the battery pack end, new technologies such as HJT, IBC, MWT, half-chip technology and shingled technology will increase component power. Full reduction in the entire industry chain efficiency bonus technology dividend fully released, will bring the continued decline in end-product prices. According to the new analysis of CITIC, the end of 2019 photovoltaic electricity costs are expected to reach 0.4 yuan / kWh.


3, distributed photovoltaic, photovoltaic poverty alleviation, "Top Runner" project is driving the development of the industry's troika


According to data from China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the domestic ground / distributed power plants added 27 GW / 15 GW from January to September respectively, an increase of 20% / 300% over the same period of last year. The distributed installed capacity increased rapidly. In November 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Bureau of Energy jointly released the Notice on Piloting Market-Oriented Distributed Power Generation Trade. It is clear that distributed generation uses nearby clean energy resources to realize market-oriented transactions. No bottlenecks in the index of distribution, "Wall sale of electricity" Breakthrough restrictions on electricity generation tariffs do not have to worry about default issues. Moreover, the market has derived a variety of distributed "photovoltaic +" model, roof photovoltaic, agricultural light, fishing light one, according to the new calculation of CITIC, the total potential installed capacity of about 7200 GW, the industry believes that distributed The outbreak 2017 is only the starting point. As far as PV poverty alleviation is concerned, as of September 2017, 13 provinces have fully integrated their targets into PV poverty alleviation. According to the published statistics, the total amount will reach 10 GW. Photovoltaic poverty alleviation There are no arrears of subsidies, to ensure the advantages of consumer and other support, with the support of important national policies, photovoltaic anti-poverty policy as an important part of precision poverty reduction will continue to carry out. The "Top Runner" policy has planned a 4-year, 32-GW target during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. Although the total amount is relatively small, it has demonstrated its role in driving the PV industry. Under the trend of tightening the index of general centralized ground power station, distributed, photovoltaic poverty alleviation and "Top Runner" projects will become the main force of market replacement.


4, subsidies will gradually decline, the leading enterprises to lead parity online


As PV product prices continue to decline, subsidies need to decrease year by year has become the industry consensus. In our opinion, the new energy industry needs state support in the long run. If the cost of electricity can not be continuously reduced, the industry will lose its vitality. After the PV generation side parity will get rid of subsidies, full competition in all aspects, without the quality and cost advantages of manufacturing enterprises will be out of the final survival is the manufacture of leading enterprises and innovative business models of small and micro ancillary services companies.



Impact of emerging trade barriers on emerging markets


1, the European photovoltaic market is gradually shrinking


Affected by the economic downturn, the major member states of the EU drastically reduced their subsidies and trade protection under the price commitment mechanism hindered the development of PV. According to the statistics of the new energy sources in the group, the new PV installed capacity in the EU has dropped from 16.5 GW in 2012 to 10 GW in 2013, 7 GW in 2014 and 2015 to about 6.7 GW in 2016 , Declining year by year. Although the EU adjusted its minimum import limit (MIP) in September 2017, the MIP will gradually decrease from October, but the price is still above 30% of the market price. Most of China's major PV companies have already withdrawn from price commitment agreements, mainly exporting to Europe in the third place. The small size of the European market, coupled with Chinese enterprises to circumvent measures, its trade policy has little effect on China's PV exports.


2, the United States "201" clause has a limited impact on the industry as a whole


The U.S. government on 22 September made a ruling to issue a "201" investigation on all PV products imported into the United States. At the end of last year, we judged that the final judgment of "201" would definitely be detrimental to non-US products including China's PV. However, the demand of the U.S. market in the first half of next year has been assaulted in the United States in the second half of this year. The demand after the second half of next year will depend on the trend of the photovoltaic power generation markets in the United States. Under the strong suppression of China's PV over the past five years, the native solar cells and components companies in the United States have already survived. The already bankrupt Suniva and Solarworld, the remaining investments in power station applications such as SolarCity, SunPower and Firstsolar, have not yet been prepared Photovoltaic product manufacturing competitiveness. In the short term, the capacity of other countries can not meet the demand of the United States, so the heavy tax means that the purchase of photovoltaic modules can only raise prices, which is a serious blow to the development of the US PV industry. We think the impact of the "201" survey on China's PV industry is no longer the same as that of the last "double turn round." According to CITIC's new forecast, the United States next year installed capacity halved to 6 GW, global total installed capacity next year at 110 GW, down about 5%, the United States market turmoil on the overall impact of demand is limited.


3, India's PV manufacturing industry chain is still weak China's raw materials for photovoltaic materials


According to the China Association of Photovoltaic Industry, India has replaced Japan as the world's third-largest market and China's largest exporter of photovoltaic products, accounting for 28.3% of the total exports in January-August 2017, and the installed capacity of solar PV in 2017 is expected to reach 9- 10 GW. Affected by severe haze, India announced a huge clean energy promotion plan, but India's photovoltaic industry chain is not complete, the short term is still heavily dependent on China's imports. In July 2017, the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued a public notice to launch anti-dumping investigations on PV cells and modules imported from mainland China, Taiwan and Malaysia. The development of the Indian market is inseparable from the high cost performance and sufficient capacity of China's photovoltaic products, in particular, occupy 90% of the world's silicon wafer production capacity, so the silicon is not anti-dumping investigation directory. However, many solar faucets such as Canadian Solar, GCL, JA and others announced that they will cooperate with Indian enterprises in promoting the manufacture of photovoltaic products in India.


4, Emerging market outbreak of exports increased beyond the traditional market decline


According to the data released by China Photovoltaic Industry Association, silicon wafer exports increased 23.4% YoY in FY17-FY17, mainly in China Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and South Korea, accounting for over 90% of the total export volume. Battery exports increased 39.1% YoY, with markets mainly in Brazil, India, South Korea and other countries; component exports increased 33.6% YoY, mature markets for exports to Europe and the United States stabilized, and emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America gradually expand. It can be seen that the main export of photovoltaic products in China has become an emerging market. The trade barriers between Europe and the United States have had little effect.



The future of cost-effective photovoltaic products will dominate the market


According to the analysis of research on new energy sources of the state, the demand of the whole industry chain of monocrystalline wafers, batteries and modules has seen a sharp decline in demand since the end of the third quarter of 2017, and the market price has not yet been able to see a rebound in demand. However, , At a reasonable price and cost-effective to meet the strong market demand, the battery terminal also have turned to polycrystalline production line.


1, single polycrystalline product technical characteristics analysis


Monocrystalline conversion efficiency has been better than polycrystalline, but cost control problems, market share remained below 20%. In the past two years, due to the promotion of diamond wire cutting and China's "Top Runner" program, single crystal market share has an upward trend. Polymorphic conversion efficiency than single crystal, but the efficiency is not big difference, and the polycrystalline efficiency is getting closer and closer to the single crystal, the key is the cost of low cost. The difference between single crystal and polycrystalline silicon end, the silicon end of the difference in the long end of the crystal, that is polycrystalline ingot and single crystal pull rod technology in unit production capacity and power consumption of the huge difference. According to public information, the current single-crystal crystal four per crystal continuous five crystal furnace the latest production capacity of about 3 tons / month, crystal pulling power consumption of about 24 degrees / kg; polycrystalline ingot G7 furnace production capacity of about 9 tons / month, ingot power consumption of about 7 degrees / kg. At the slicing end, single-crystal companies took the lead in 2016 to achieve a significant cost-saving alternative to mortar cutting by diamond wire cutting, making up for the cost disadvantage at the long crystal side. After three years of hard work, polycrystalline companies began to introduce diamond wire cutting in the second half of 2017, reducing the cost by 0.5-0.8 yuan / piece. Monocrystalline companies returned to the same starting line in the segment. However, diamond-faced polycrystalline silicon faces the problem of surface treatment. At present, the black silicon technology that has been mass-produced has not only succeeded in solving the problem of suede reflection but also improved the conversion efficiency by 0.3% -0.6% and the gain of efficiency improvement over that of black silicon Cashmere side of the input. It is estimated that the cost of wet black silicon technology increased by about 0.02 yuan / watt, with 0.05 yuan / watt gain, cost-effective upgrade significantly.


2, the rapid industrialization of polycrystalline cutting-edge technology and single crystal cost standard deviation of 0.4 yuan / piece, 0.06 yuan component /


Observing the development of PV manufacturing technology, we can see that the technology of diamond wire cutting, PERC, half-chip and so on are firstly applied in single crystal and turned to polycrystalline after the completion of single-crystal test. The polycrystalline which accounts for 80% of the market is the industrialization of photovoltaic technology The main force. To diamond wire cutting, for example, Daile new material introduced in the past all the single crystal diamond wire cutting is also not much demand this year, a larger volume of polycrystalline diamond wire to promote much faster than expected, the demand for the diamond wire is Giant magnification, diamond wire supply in short supply. With the decrease of the hard point of the polycrystalline ingot and the increase of the strength of the diamond wire, single polycrystalline cutting will jointly go to thinning: in 2017, the main current diameter of single crystal is 65μm, polycrystalline is 70μm; in 2018, the single crystal is 60μm, Polymorph 65μm, by 2020, single polycrystalline can use 50μm diamond wire. Monocrystalline efficiency has been maintained at 1.5% poor, but polycrystalline progress faster in the past year, diamond + black silicon + PERC polycrystalline cell production efficiency increased to 20.5%, and single crystal PERC battery capacity Production efficiency narrowed to 0.7% -0.8%. It is estimated that after the single polycrystalline efficiency is reduced, the difference between the cost performance of the module end has been reduced from 0.1 yuan / watt to 0.06 yuan / watt in previous years to cover the cost difference of BOS of photovoltaic power generation system and transmitted to the silicon end , The cost standard deviation from the previous 0.6 yuan / piece down to 0.4 yuan / piece, that is, the price of monocrystalline silicon chip can only be 0.4 yuan higher than the price of / piece, in order to maintain single crystal components And polycrystalline components in the photovoltaic power generation terminal with the same degree of capital investment costs.


3, polycrystalline upstream and downstream cooperation closely formed fate community will be the first to enter the parity network


Photovoltaic all aspects of the industrial chain adhere to specialization, science and technology to maintain the lead, technology-driven. We believe that there is more competition between single-crystal counterparts in upstream and downstream single-crystal enterprises and in the same sector, competition in the market is limited, and the cooperation among industrial chains is not enough, and there is a lack of cooperation among peers. The major polycrystalline enterprises as the main market, all sectors of the entire industry chain leading enterprises have formed a fate community, through a series of vertical and horizontal, in technical cooperation and promotion, equipment and industrial support, market development and jointly promote the application of new technologies , Such as jointly promoting the diamond wire cutting, sharing black silicon technology, upstream and downstream profit sharing to lower reaches, component prices have remained at a reasonable price, sufficient capacity to meet the "leader" project market demand. We predict that polycrystalline products will be the first to become mainstream products after 2019 when photovoltaic power generation enters the electricity-price side of the Internet.


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